With the NBA regular season 2021-22 now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily elections during the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one choice for every game from now until the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
I have struggled with this election since the 6th game ended. Boston was undoubtedly the “better” team in this series. The Celtics beat Heath by 33 points in six games. Their results throughout the season are also more impressive. Their victory in the second round over the Bucks surpasses everything that Miami did in the first two rounds, and after they started the regular season with 23-24, they finished 28-7 with a plus-15.5 net rating. The heat in that same period was much more modest plus -4.5. There is a reason why the huge consensus coming into this series was that Boston would win.
Still, home teams win in about 80 percent of game 7. Should that be important in a series where home teams are 2-4? Maybe? It is also worth asking how much we should be willing to reject the seasonal pattern in the case of Miami because it exceeded expectations in two of the last three postseasons. The heat might be better suited to playoff basketball than regular season basketball. They also kept this series close despite dealing with much worse injuries than Boston. The Heat now looks healthier than they were during the defeats in the 4th and 5th games. They are definitely not in full force. Make it what you want. You get points when you download Heat. Games 7 are often close.
In the end, I chose Boston for several reasons:
- Like Seth Partnov pointed out on Twitter, Miami just had one of the best shows to shoot until the late hours of all time. They had an effective percentage of goals from the game of 61.4 in the last four seconds of shooting time. That’s up from 36.4 percent in the rest of the postseason, and 16 percent of their shots came in the last four seconds. If the Heat make shots like in Game 6, they will win. It’s a sample for one game. Another hot night is not out of the realm of possibilities. But that was a huge difference from the performance. Typically, the defense will go pretty well when it can empty the clock for a shot in 16% possession.
- The Celtics have an extraordinary capacity for nonsense. Traffic, unfortunately, is to be expected at this time. But will Marcus Smart really lead Boston in a 7-game goal attempt? Will six of his seven best players commit at least four fouls? If Boston can just get out of their way, it should be much easier in Game 7. That is what happened in the victory.
- Miami’s injuries are much more significant than Boston’s, and it’s fair to ask how much tribute Game 6 really took. Jimmy Butler played 46 minutes after three games full of injuries. Remember when he scored 35 to heroically extend the 2020 finals in Game 5? Well … he scored 12 in Game 6, the end of the series. He now has five games of 35 points this postseason. In the games immediately after the first four, he averaged a more modest 21.8 points per game. It will be difficult to ask the injured Butler to match his performance in Game 6, but he may have to. Players without the name Butler scored just 64 points in Game 6. Of those 64, 18 came from Kyle Lowry, who played 37 minutes after averaging just 25 in the first three games of this series in which he played. How will his hamstring handle the load? Having Tyler Hero would help in the attack … but at this point it would probably do more harm than good. Even healthy, he must contribute so much in attack to justify his poor defense. Is this even possible with a larger groin injury? Would his presence only give the Celtics a hunting target at the other end? There are no good answers here. Maybe the Heat are so strong that they can get him out for another game. That would just require a lot.
So, after I got burned in the 6th game, I reluctantly take the Celtics and hope for the best. Choice: Celtics -3
I am covered a total of 7 points for the game earlier, to be brief, they almost always have very low grades. Write it on your nerves in Game 7, a defense that better understands what happens with attacks, pure exhaustion, whatever, but I will always withdraw because, as I wrote in more detail here, the numbers suggest that it is usually going to hit. Choice: below 195.5
During his last four games, PJ Tucker averaged just under 17 combined points, rebounds and assists per game. Remember, that includes a breakthrough in the fourth game in which he played only 21 minutes. Assuming he doesn’t run into foul problems, he will play much more in Game 7, including some reserve center minutes that are ripe for jump opportunities. Look at the line this way: Let’s say Tucker makes one triple from the corner and another of those little floats he loved all postseason. He has had at least one assist in the last seven playoff games, so you would only need seven rebounds to guarantee victory, assuming no more points or assists. There are too many ways you can win this bet to get less. Pick: Tucker over 13.5 combined points, rebounds and assists